Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 May 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. A long
duration B3 event occurred in association with a filament eruption
at 19/0436Z centered near N20W25. An associated CME became visible
in LASCO C2 imagery at 19/0436Z but is not expected to cause
significant activity at Earth. Region 1217 (S23W50) decayed to plage
during the period. All other regions on the disk remained relatively
quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for isolated C-class events for the next three
days (20-22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for days one and two (20-21 May)
due to weak effects from the CME observed at 18/1842Z off the west
limb. A return to quiet conditions is expected on day three (22
May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 084 Predicted 20 May-22 May 084/082/080 90 Day Mean 19 May 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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