Viewing archive of Friday, 7 April 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Apr 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
07/1949Z from Region 2645 (S09W91). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (08 Apr) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day two (09 Apr) and
expected to be very low on day three (10 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 06/2114Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 07/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/1832Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 224 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (08 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 074 Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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