Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 October 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Oct 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 467 km/s at 18/0315Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/2059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 55588 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (19 Oct, 20 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (21 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 073 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 074/078/082 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 006/005-006/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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