Viewing archive of Monday, 21 December 2020

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 407 km/s at 21/1357Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 21/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 21/2056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 265 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Dec, 24 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (23 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Dec 080
  Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec 080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        21 Dec 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Dec  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  008/010-012/018-014/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm05%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm30%55%50%

All times in UTC

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