Předpověď počasí ve vesmíru - diskuse

Vydáno: 2024 Nov 22 0030 UTC
Připraveno americkým ministerstvem obchodu, NOAA, střediskem pro předpověď vesmírného počasí a zpracováno na SpaceWeatherLive.com

Sluneční aktivita

24 h Shrnutí

Solar activity returned to low levels with only C-class flares observed. Region 3901 (S07E24, Dai/beta-gamma) was responsible for nearly all of the flare activity throughout the period. This region exhibited growth in its trailing spot area and maintained its gamma configuration. New Regions 3903 (S10W17, Cai/beta), 3904 (S13W63, Cao/beta), and 3905 S09E77, Hax/alpha) developed and were numbered this period. The remaining regions were either stable or displayed slight decay. Two large CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery. The first was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 21/1224 UTC. This CME was associated with a large prominence that lifted off the SE limb. Analysis indicated a miss well ahead of Earth. The second was a large, explosive eruption that occurred at approximately 21/1800 UTC. This event was noted in SUVI imagery from beyond the west limb, likely from old Region 3989 (S09, L=005). The associated CME was first seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 21/1812 UTC. With this event originated well beyond the west limb, it is not expected to have an Earth-directed component.

Předpověď

Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) and a slight chance of X-class (R3-Strong) events 22-24 Nov.

Energetické částice

24 h Shrnutí

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) levels, reaching a peak value of 43 pfu thus far. The 100 MeV proton levels reached a peak value of 7 pfu at 21/2010 UTC.

Předpověď

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at S1 (Minor) levels for 22 Nov. By 23 Nov, levels are expected to diminish to a chance for S1 thresholds, with conditions returning to near background levels by 24 Nov.

Solární bouře

24 h Shrnutí

Solar wind parameters were indicative of a likely SSBC as the anticipated negative polarity CH HSS moved into a geoeffective position. Solar wind speeds averaged near 400 km/s, total field strength ranged between 2-10nT, and the Bz component fluctuated between +/-7 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a negative position, with occasional oscillations into a positive orientation.

Předpověď

Solar wind conditions are anticipated to become elevated on 22-24 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geoprostor

24 h Shrnutí

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Předpověď

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, with a chance for an isolated active period, on 22-24 Nov due to anticipated CH HSS effects.