Předpověď počasí ve vesmíru - diskuse

Vydáno: 2025 Jan 23 0030 UTC
Připraveno americkým ministerstvem obchodu, NOAA, střediskem pro předpověď vesmírného počasí a zpracováno na SpaceWeatherLive.com

Sluneční aktivita

24 h Shrnutí

Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.3/1f flare at 22/1108 UTC that originated just to the SE of Region 3961 (S10W35, Ekc/beta-gamma). The flare was a result of an approximate 10 degree filament eruption centered near S15W10. An associated CME was observed with the majority of the ejecta off the SSW limb at 22/1124 UTC. Initial model results indicated an arrival early on 25 Jan. Slight decay and separation was observed in the intermediate spots of Region 3961. Slight growth was observed in Region 3969 (S06E17, Dri/beta). Region 3967 (S16W02, Cri/beta) was split with its eastern half numbered as Region 3972 (S18E06, Csi/beta).

Předpověď

M-class flares are likely (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3, Strong), on 23-25 Jan.

Energetické částice

24 h Shrnutí

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,500 pfu at 22/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Předpověď

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be moderate to high levels on 23-24 Jan. A decrease to normal to moderate levels is likely on 25 Jan with the arrival of the 21 Jan CME. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 23-25 Jan.

Solární bouře

24 h Shrnutí

Solar wind parameters continued to decline as HSS activity slowly diminished. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 510 km/s to near 450 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was variable.

Předpověď

Around mid to late on 24 Jan, a glancing blow from the 21 Jan CME is likely to enhance solar wind parameters. A further enhancement is expected early on 25 Jan with the arrival of the 22 Jan CME.

Geoprostor

24 h Shrnutí

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Předpověď

Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 23 Jan. By mid to late on 24 Jan, a glancing blow from the first of two CMEs is likely to cause unsettled to active conditions. By early on 25 Jan, the 22 Jan CME is expected to arrive causing a further increase to active to G1 (Minor) storming with a chance for G2 (Moderate) storm levels.