Předpověď počasí ve vesmíru - diskuse

Vydáno: 2025 Feb 22 1230 UTC
Připraveno americkým ministerstvem obchodu, NOAA, střediskem pro předpověď vesmírného počasí a zpracováno na SpaceWeatherLive.com

Sluneční aktivita

24 h Shrnutí

Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4000 (N17E01, Dai/beta-gamma) produced two M-flares (R1-Minor) early in the period, the largest of which was an M3.4 flare at 22/1215 UTC. New Regions 4001 (N24W69, Bxo/beta), 4002 (N13E27, Bxo/beta), and 4003 (N10E56, Bxo/beta) were numbered this period, while the remaining regions were largely stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available data.

Předpověď

There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events, and a slight chance for R3 or greater events, over 22-24 Feb.

Energetické částice

24 h Shrnutí

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at near-background levels.

Předpověď

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 24 Feb. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 22-24 Feb.

Solární bouře

24 h Shrnutí

Nominal solar wind conditions prevailed throughout the period.

Předpověď

Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail on 22-23 Feb. Weakly enhanced conditions are likely on 24 Feb due to the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences and the possible glancing influence of a CME that left the Sun late on 19 Feb.

Geoprostor

24 h Shrnutí

The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled.

Předpověď

Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 22 Feb, and mostly quiet levels are expected on 23 Feb. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 24 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS influences and possible glancing influences of a CME that left the Sun late on 19 Feb.