Předpověď počasí ve vesmíru - diskuse

Vydáno: 2024 Dec 22 1230 UTC
Připraveno americkým ministerstvem obchodu, NOAA, střediskem pro předpověď vesmírného počasí a zpracováno na SpaceWeatherLive.com

Sluneční aktivita

24 h Shrnutí

Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3932 (S17E49, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive M1.0 flare at 22/0410 UTC; the largest event of the period. Regions 3928 (S13E27, Dki/beta-gamma), 3930 (S22W54, Cai/beta), 3932, and 3934 (N13E54, Dao/beta) underwent minor growth while the remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available data.

Předpověď

M-class flare activity is likely, with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare, over 22-24 Dec.

Energetické částice

24 h Shrnutí

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated above background with a peak flux of 5 pfu observed at 21/1235 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal and moderate levels.

Předpověď

There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 22-24 Dec. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 24 Dec.

Solární bouře

24 h Shrnutí

Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced this period. Total field decreased from a peak of 9 nT to around 6 nT and Bz varied between +/-8 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between 475-625 km/s.

Předpověď

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 22-24 Dec. Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected over 23-24 Dec and there is a chance to see the glancing influences of a CME (from 20 Dec) on 24 Dec.

Geoprostor

24 h Shrnutí

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.

Předpověď

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet and unsettled over 22-24 Dec with negative polarity CH HSS influences likely on 23-24 Dec, and the possible glancing influences of a CME (from 20 Dec) on 24 Dec.