Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 June 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Jun 15 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Jun 2023	148	003
16 Jun 2023	155	026
17 Jun 2023	158	016

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C6.6 flare, peaking at 22:59 UTC on June 14, associated with NOAA AR 3327 which had decayed into a plage region. The two active regions that rotated over the south-eastern limb have been numbered as NOAA AR 3335 and 3336 and along with NOAA AR 3333 are the most complex regions on the solar disk. NOAA AR 3336 also produced a C6 flare, peaking at 03:26 UTC. NOAA ARs 3326, 3329 and 3330 have or are about to rotate over the west limb. The other regions on the disk are magnetically simple and did not produce any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Coronal mass ejections

In the last 24 hours there were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations. A filament eruption from the south west was seen on June 14 from 17:18 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 but the related CME appears narrow and predominantly to the south west and is not expected to impact Earth.

Solar wind

The solar wind conditions were relatively stable for most of the period. The solar wind speed varied between 310 and 400km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated around 6nT for most of the period but began to gradually increase from 06:00 UTC on June 15, reaching a maximum of 10 nT, with a minimum Bz of -6 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The interplanetary magnetic field is expected to continue to increase in relation to the expected Coronal Interaction Region (CIR) ahead of the high speed stream associated with the coronal hole which began to transit the central meridian on June 12.

Geomagnetism

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (NOAA KP 1-2 and K-Bel 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at active conditions, with minor storm conditions also possible from early on June 16 in response to the expected CIR and high speed stream.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is to remain below this threshold for the next day. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 118, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Jun 2023

Wolf number Catania	130
10cm solar flux	144
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	114 - Based on 31 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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