Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 July 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Jul 12 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Jul 2023	216	008
13 Jul 2023	211	025
14 Jul 2023	205	015

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours with ten M-class flares produced by four different active regions. The strongest registered flaring activity was an impulsive M6.9-flare, start time 08:49 UTC, peak time 08:55 UTC, end time 09:10 UTC, produced by NOAA AR 3372 on July 12th. The region has rotated over the north-east limb yesterday and since then has produced multiple low to high M-class flares, including an M6.8, peak time 18:08 UTC, and M5.8, peak time 22:15 UTC on July 11th. Due to the close proximity to the limb it is still difficult to estimate the true magnetic complexity of this region, but it remains the most active region on the visible solar disc and was responsible for most of the flaring activity. Isolated low M-class flares were also registered from NOAA AR 3366 (beta) and NOAA AR 3368 (beta) from near the south-west limb, and by NOAA AR 3361 (beta-gamma) in the north- west quadrant. The latter region has decreased its magnetic complexity. It developed more sunspots and started to produce low to moderate levels of activity. NOAA AR 3367 (beta-gamma) has developed new sunspots as well, but remained mostly silent. NOAA AR 3363 (beta) remains the largest active region on the visible solar disc and has also significantly increased its number of trialing spots. Despite its development the region remained mostly quiet. The remaining active regions have been relatively simple and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the coming days with increasing chances for isolated X-class flaring mostly from NOAA AR 3372.

Coronal mass ejections

A glancing blow from the partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 04:00 UTC on July 10th is expected to arrive at Earth late in the UTC evening of July 12th. A filament eruption near NOAA AR 3363 (beta) was observed yesterday with an associated southward partial halo CME first visible in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 19:24 UTC on July 11th with a projected speed around 750 km/s. Detailed analysis suggests that a glancing blow from this CME can be expected to arrive to Earth on July 15th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) registered nominal slow solar wind conditions with current solar wind velocity close to 300 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly elevated with a maximum value of 9.6 nT and a minimum Bz of -6.5 nT. The B field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at nominal levels throughout the day and register some enhancements during the night of July 12th and on July 13th due to a possible glancing blow ICME arrival and a high speed stream.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and quiet to unsettled locally over Belgium. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail until UTC night of July 12th when unsettled to active conditions with chances for isolated minor storms are expected. Isolated moderate storms are possible on July 13th - July 15th with expected high speed stream arrival from a negative polarity coronal hole and possible glancing blow arrivals from two CMEs.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux returned to nominal background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days. Further enhancements in the proton flux levels remain possible in case of new strong eruptive on-disc solar activity.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence decreased to nominal and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 200, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Jul 2023

Wolf number Catania	250
10cm solar flux	214
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	212 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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