3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Oct 18 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 18-Oct 20 2024 is 4 (.00below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Oct 18       Oct 19       Oct 20
00-03UT       2.67         4.00         3.67     
03-06UT       3.00         3.67         3.33     
06-09UT       2.00         3.33         3.00     
09-12UT       2.00         2.67         3.00     
12-15UT       3.00         2.00         2.00     
15-18UT       3.33         2.00         2.00     
18-21UT       3.67         2.67         1.67     
21-00UT       4.00         3.00         1.67     

Rationale

There is a chance of G1 (Minor storm) conditions on 18 Oct due to a potential glancing blow from an eruption on the western limb associated with the M2 flare from Region 3854 on 15 Oct at 1833 UTC.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 18-Oct 20 2024

              Oct 18  Oct 19  Oct 20
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels with a slight chance for a solar radiation storm event through 20 Oct as Regions 3852 and 3854 transit the western limb.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Oct 17 2024 0505 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 18-Oct 20 2024

              Oct 18        Oct 19        Oct 20
R1-R2           60%           60%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely on 18-20 Oct. There is a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) through 20 Oct.