3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2025 Jan 20 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 20-Jan 22 2025 is 4 (.00below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Jan 20       Jan 21       Jan 22
00-03UT       4.00         4.00         1.33     
03-06UT       3.33         3.00         1.33     
06-09UT       3.00         2.00         1.67     
09-12UT       3.00         2.33         1.33     
12-15UT       3.67         2.33         1.33     
15-18UT       2.00         2.00         1.33     
18-21UT       1.00         2.67         1.67     
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         1.67     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 20-Jan 22 2025

              Jan 20  Jan 21  Jan 22
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale

There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 20-22 Jan due to multiple complex regions on the visible disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 20-Jan 22 2025

              Jan 20        Jan 21        Jan 22
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over 20-22 Jan due to the flare potential of multiple complex regions on the visible disk.