3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Dec 21 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 21-Dec 23 2024 is 3 (.67below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Dec 21       Dec 22       Dec 23
00-03UT       3.33         1.67         2.33     
03-06UT       3.33         1.33         2.67     
06-09UT       2.00         1.33         2.00     
09-12UT       3.00         1.33         2.00     
12-15UT       3.67         1.33         1.00     
15-18UT       2.67         1.67         2.00     
18-21UT       0.67         1.33         2.00     
21-00UT       0.67         1.67         2.67     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 21-Dec 23 2024

              Dec 21  Dec 22  Dec 23
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 21 2024 0038 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 21-Dec 23 2024

              Dec 21        Dec 22        Dec 23
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 21-23 Dec.