3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2025 Feb 21 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 21-Feb 23 2025 is 1 (.67below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Feb 21       Feb 22       Feb 23
00-03UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     
03-06UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
06-09UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
09-12UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         1.67     
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         1.33     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2025

              Feb 21  Feb 22  Feb 23
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2025

              Feb 21        Feb 22        Feb 23
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity and a slight chance for X-class (R3, Strong) activity through 23 Feb.