Solar activity report
Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/0749Z from Region 3815 (S28E15). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 07/0751Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 07/0742Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
07/0246Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 295 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Sep,
09 Sep, 10 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 222 Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 220/220/215 90 Day Mean 07 Sep 215
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 008/010-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 25% |
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Latest forum messages
Filaments and prominences 322AR 3813 72other than May things have been pretty boring ... lots of spots.. not a lot of action..... 5Latest SC25 Predictions 187Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1430
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/08/14 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/09/07 | M1.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/08/28 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| August 2024 | 215.5 +19 |
| September 2024 | 165.8 -49.7 |
| Last 30 days | 185.9 -28.8 |