Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2025 Jan 20 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 3959 (N18W33, Cko/beta) produced a C8.2 flare at 19/1708 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. Region 3961 (S09W09, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced low level C-class flare activity while continuing to exhibit signs of decay in its intermediate spots. Regions 3964 (N06W77, Eki/beta-gamma), 3965 (N14E15, Cso/beta) and 3968 (S19W86, Cri/beta) tacked on C-class flares as well. Region 3970 (N14E25, Cro/beta) formed rapidly, was numbered, but was otherwise unremarkable. New, simple spots were noted developing just northwest of AR 3967, but remain unnumbered at this time as we await corroborating observatory reports. Other notable activity included a disappearing filament centered near S12E43 in GOES-16 304 imagery at approximately 20/0515 UTC. However, there has been no indication of a subsequent CME in available coronagraph imagery as of the time of this writing. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.

Forecast

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 or greater events, over 20-22 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal and moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal and moderate levels through 22 Jan with a chance for high levels on 20 Jan. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 20-22 Jan.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Negative polarity CH HSS influences prevailed. Total field strength and solar wind speeds gradually increased over the period with the latter reaching ~600 km/s. The Bz component underwent man southward deflections, reaching -5 to -8 nT. Phi was predominantly negative while undertaking excursions to a positive solar sector.

Forecast

Enhanced solar wind conditions and negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to persist through 21 Jan. Background levels are expected to return on 22 Jan.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Forecast

Periods of active conditions are expected on 20 Jan and will likely continue through 21 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 22 Jan.