Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Oct 18 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity was at moderate levels with M-class (R1-Minor) flare activity observed from two separate regions. Region 3852 (S13W65, Cao/beta) produced an M2.4 flare at 17/0505UTC, while Region 3856 (N10W19, Dac/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1.0 flare at 17/0222 UTC. This region also produced numerous C-class flares. Region 3852 indicated little change, while Region 3856 showed some intermediate spot growth. Region 3857 (S07E25, Dao/beta-gamma) showed growth in its leader spots. New Region 3860 (S07E15, Dai/beta) emerged this period and produced C-class flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed associated with any of these events.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely on 18-20 Oct. There is a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) through 20 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 18 Oct with a potential to increase to high levels on 19-20 Oct due to influence from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels with a slight chance for a solar radiation storm event through 20 Oct as Regions 3852 and 3854 transit the western limb.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced due to CH HSS effects. Total magnetic field reached 7 nT while the Bz component remained variable between +/- 6 nT. Wind speeds slowly decreased through the period from a high near 450 km/s to a low of about 360 km/s. The phi angle was steady in a positive sector.

Forecast

Influence from a large, positive polarity CH HSS is anticipated early on 18 Oct and to continue through 20 Oct. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast

Active levels are anticipated on 18-20 Oct due to the influence of a large, positive polarity CH HSS. There is a chance of G1 (Minor storm) conditions on 18 Oct due to a potential glancing blow from an eruption on the western limb associated with the M2 flare from Region 3854 on 15 Oct at 1833 UTC.