Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Dec 21 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3932 (S17E63, Dkc/beta) produced an impulsive M1.9 flare at 21/0038 UTC; the largest event of the period. Region 3927 (S08E32, Hsx/alpha) was split into two separate groups with the lead spot maintaining the 3927 designation, and what were the intermediate and trailer spots now constituting new Region 3933 (S08E43, Dao/beta). Minor growth was observed in Regions 3928 (S14E41, Dai/beta), 3930 (S22W42, Cai/beta), 3932, and 3933. A CME, first visible in C2 off the NNE at 20/2324 UTC, associated with flaring from the vicinity of N22E08 at around 20/2230 UTC is being analyzed for a potential Earth-directed component. A filament centered near N35W53 began lifting off at around 21/1000 UTC, though no coronagraph imagery is yet available for this event.

Forecast

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 21-23 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated above background levels, but remained below S1 (Minor) levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) levels over 21-23 Dec. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 23 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced this period. Total field strength reached 10 nT and the Bz component varied between +8/-9 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between 425-560 km/s.

Forecast

Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are likely to continue through the remainder of 21 Dec. Background conditions are expected to prevail over 22 Dec and negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected on 23 Dec.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet and unsettled, with a chance for an isolated active period, through the remainder of 21 Dec. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail over 22 Dec. Quiet and unsettled conditions are likely on 23 Dec due to the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences.