Prohlížíte si archiv středa 2. dubna 2003
Report sluneční aktivity
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Zpráva o sluneční-geofyzikální činnosti 2003 Apr 02 2200 UTC
Připraveno NOAA © SWPC a zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive.comSpolečná zpráva USAF / NOAA o sluneční a geofyzikální činnosti
SDF číslo 092 Vydáno za 2200Z za 02 Apr 2003
IA. Analýza solárních aktivních oblastí a aktivity od 01-2100Z do 02-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. There were 4 minor
C-class flares from Regions 321 (N07W40) and 324 (S12W21).
IB. Předpověď sluneční aktivity
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an isolated M-Class flare from Regions
321 (N07W40), 323 (S07W56), 324 (S12W21), or 325 (N10E04).
IIA. Souhrn geofyzikální aktivity 01-2100Z až 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The high
speed stream that began on 30 March has gained slightly in strength
to nearly 580 km/sec. Intermittently southward Bz has
generated disturbed periods. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Předpověď geofyzikální aktivity
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor-storm levels due to the continuing
high speed stream, and potential for southward Bz. The high speed
stream should diminish tomorrow, and the geomagnetic field should
end the day at quiet levels.
III. Pravděpodobnosti události 03 Apr až 05 $ 4
Třída M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Třída X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Proud Penticton 10.7 cm
Pozorováno 02 Apr 158
Předpovězeno 03 Apr-05 Apr 155/155/150
90 denní průměr 02 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetické indexy A
Pozorováno Afr/Ap 01 Apr 011/012
Odhadovaný Afr/Ap 02 Apr 021/019
Předpovězeno Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Pravděpodobnosti geomagnetické aktivity 03 Apr až 05 Apr
A. Střední zeměpisné šířky |
Aktivní | 40% | 30% | 25% |
Menší bouře | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Silná bouře | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Vysoké zeměpisné šířky |
Aktivní | 45% | 40% | 35% |
Menší bouře | 20% | 10% | 10% |
Silná bouře | 10% | 05% | 05% |
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
Všechny časy v UTC
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