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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2013 Jan 13 1212 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetism

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Jan 2013	165	003
14 Jan 2013	165	001
15 Jan 2013	162	001

Bulletin

Solar activity is dominated by NOAA ARs 1652 and 1654, which both have the potential for M class flares in the coming 48 hours, with a small risk of an X class flare from AR 1654. Two M flares occurred on Jan. 13: a M1.0 flare, peaking at 00:50 UT, and a M1.7 flare, peaking at 08:38 UT, both in AR 1652. The second one was associated with a metric type II burst. Both flares were quite impulsive with no obvious CME signatures (but no LASCO observations are yet available for the second event). If this is confirmed, geomagnetic conditions should be mostly quiet during the next 48 hours, but due to the risk of a geoeffective CME, warning conditions are issued.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 084, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Jan 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	169
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	105 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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