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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2013 May 03 1209 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
03 May 2013	148	005
04 May 2013	145	011
05 May 2013	142	022

Bulletin

Solar activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with only C class flares observed. The strongest event was a C2.8 flare, in NOAA AR 1734, at 2049 UT (peak time). NOAA AR 1731 still presents a risk for an isolated M flare in the next 48 hours, which means that active conditions are expected. AR 1734 is likely to produce C class flares, with a slight risk for an M class event. A filament eruption was observed on May 2, around 1400 UT in the vicinity of AR 1730, triggering a CME observed by LASCO C2. We do not expect any geomagnetic effect from that event. Concerning the CME of May 2, linked to a M1.1 flare, LASCO C2 observations confirmed that the event goes essentially north of the ecliptic plane. There is, however a small chance that the southern flank of the CME structure will cross the Earth early on May 6, possibly triggering unsettled to active conditions on that day. For the next 24 hours, we expect quiet geomagnetic conditions to prevail, and then by the end of May 4, beginning of May 5, active conditions due to a coronal hole. Current solar wind conditions are quiet, as observed by ACE.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 068, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 02 May 2013

Wolf number Catania	123
10cm solar flux	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	068 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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