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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2013 May 19 1327 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
19 May 2013	132	029
20 May 2013	130	014
21 May 2013	128	007

Bulletin

Only C-class flares occurred in past 24h. The strongest one was a C3.4 from NOAA AR 1750 with peak at 09:15 UT. NOAA AR 1748 has lost complexity and has now a beta-delta magnetic configuration, it still can produce M flares and, less likely, X-class flares. The 10 MeV proton flux has descended below the threshold of 10 protons/cm2-s-sr, for the first time since May 15. Geomagnetic activity has ranged from unsettled to active in past 24h. It can reach up to major storm levels when the May 17 CME arrives to the Earth today.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 087, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 18 May 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	132
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	019
Estimated Ap	022
Estimated international sunspot number	086 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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