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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2013 Oct 13 1220 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Oct 2013	132	007
14 Oct 2013	132	014
15 Oct 2013	134	011

Bulletin

Active conditions are foreseen for the next 48 hours, with NOAA AR 1865 being the main candidate for an isolated M class flare, as well as, but to a lesser extent, AR 1861. An M1.7 flare occurred in AR 1865 on Oct. 13, 0043 UT (peak time). It was associated with a partial halo CME as observed from SOHO by LASCO. We expect the bulk of this CME to pass south of the Earth, but a partial hit is not excluded, with a possible arrival time on Oct. 16, around mid-day, triggering unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 24 hours, and then unsettled to active conditions by the end of Oct. 14, due a small coronal hole becoming geoeffective. Current interplanetary conditions are rather quiet, with weak Bz negative excursions, linked to a sector boundary crossing.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 094, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Oct 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	080 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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