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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2013 Dec 20 1225 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Dec 2013	155	008
21 Dec 2013	155	007
22 Dec 2013	160	007

Bulletin

Six C-flares and two M-flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The strongest flare was a M3.5 event taking place at the east limb, from a region that currently is rotating to the front side of the solar disk. There were no Earth-directed CME observed. The probability for C-flares remains high, around 80%, from NOAA ARs 1917, 1920, 1928, 1930 and a new region at about 40 degrees west of the central meridian. There is a substantial chance (around 60%) for more M-flares, especially from the unnumbered region currently at the east limb. An X-flare is possible but unlikely. The proton flux for >10MeV protons, measured by GOES, currently remains well below threshold levels. We are currently in a slow solar wind stream with a solar wind speed of 350 km/s and a magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field of 5 nT (observed by ACE). Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled (Kp<4) and are expected to remain so during the next 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 097, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	154
10cm solar flux	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	096 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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