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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Jan 12 1245 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Jan 2014	160	016
13 Jan 2014	150	012
14 Jan 2014	150	004

Bulletin

In total 8 C flares occurred during the past 24 hours. A C6.5 and C6.0 flare were the strongest events. Both erupted from Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA AR 1944). Also Catania sunspot group 9 (NOAA AR 1950) was responsible for two C flares. More C flares are expected within the next 48 hours with a chance of 90%. Chances for M flares are estimated at 40% and for X flares at 10%. We issue a warning condition for a proton event, due to position of NOAA AR 1944 which is rotating towards the west limb. No geo-effective CMEs were observed. The solar wind, measured by ACE, showed signatures of the arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed increased from about 400 km/s to 500 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 9 nT and the Bz component varied between +8 and -8 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to active conditions are expected during the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 098, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	102 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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