Vydáno: 2014 Jul 13 1227 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
13 Jul 2014 | 140 | 012 |
14 Jul 2014 | 140 | 009 |
15 Jul 2014 | 140 | 004 |
Five C-class flares were observed since the last bulletin. The activity mainly originated from NOAA ARs 2108, 2109 and 2113. The largest flare was a C6.4 flare, peaking at 9:03 on July 13, originating from NOAA AR 2109, approaching the West limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. C-class flares are expected, with an increasing chance for an isolated M-class flare. Due to the location of NOAA ARs 2108 and 2109, with increasing activity, a warning condition for a potential proton event is issued. Solar wind speed reached values between 350 and 400 km/s. The magnitude of interplanetary magnetic field increased from 5 to 9 nT with a currently positive Bz component. No clear signatures of a shock arrival of the July 9 CME were observed yet. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled. This is expected to remain so till the possible arrival of a glancing blow of the July 9 CME, which might increase geomagnetic activity.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 069, based on 07 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 145 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 009 |
AK Wingst | 006 |
Estimated Ap | 007 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 090 - Based on 16 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Konec | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Žádný |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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