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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Oct 19 1228 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Oct 2014	172	016
20 Oct 2014	172	012
21 Oct 2014	172	015

Bulletin

During the past 24 hours, one X flare and nine C flares were released by beta-gamma region NOAA AR 2192. The long duration X1.1 flare peaked at 5:03 UT on October 19. It seems that the X flare was not accompanied by a CME. In the next 48 hours, X flares are possible, especially from AR 2192. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind speeds observed by ACE varied between about 355 and 515 km/s, with current speed values around 400 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 2 and 11 nT, with current values around 10 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to stay nominal until October 22, when they are likely to increase to well over 500 km/s due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream. Geomagnetic conditions during the last 24 hours were quiet to active (K Dourbes between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) with active excursions (K Dourbes = 4) are expected on October 19, 20 and 21.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 068, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	022
Estimated Ap	022
Estimated international sunspot number	043 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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