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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Oct 26 1412 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Oct 2014	220	012
27 Oct 2014	220	012
28 Oct 2014	218	007

Bulletin

In the past 24 hours, Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) produced two X-class flares: X1.0 peaking at 17:08 UT yesterday and X2.0 peaking at 10:56 UT today. Neither of the flares seems to be associated with an Earth-directed CME. The area of the Catania sunspot group 88 increases again, and it maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, so we expect the flaring activity up to X-level from this sunspot group. As the Catania sunspot group 88 is currently situated in the western solar hemisphere, a major eruption in this active region may lead to a proton event. A long filament in the northern hemisphere is continuing its passage across the solar central meridian. Its possible eruption may lead to an Earth-directed CME. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 370 km/s) solar wind flow with slightly elevated (around 7 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so, with isolated intervals of active (K = 4) geomagnetic conditions possible but not very likely.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 096, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	///
Estimated international sunspot number	101 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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