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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Nov 02 1332 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Nov 2014	128	009
03 Nov 2014	130	015
04 Nov 2014	135	008

Bulletin

The background of the Xray flux is at the B-level. Flaring activity was limited to three C-class flares, originating from Catania sunspot group 3 (NOAA AR 2201). The strongest flare was a C7.2 flare, peaking at 16:46 UT on November 1. Three CMEs lifting off on November 1 were observed in coronagraphic imagery. A first partial halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 and C3 imagery, with first measurements at 5:12 UT in LASCO-C2 and 5:30 UT in LASCO-C3 data. The CME is associated to the filament eruption at 4:00 UT near Catania sunspot group 2. The CME is travelling mainly in the eastern direction with a projected speed of 687 km/s (Cactus estimate). SOHO/LASCO-C2 and C3 detected a second CME with first measurement at 15:48 UT in LASCO-C2 and at 16:54 in LASCO-C3. This CME is either related to a backsided event (no STEREO data available to confirm) or related to the C7.2 flare. The CME is propagating mainly to the south with a projected speed of about 700 km/s. The third CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 (first measurement at 19:00 UT) is believed to be backsided and hence is not expected to have any Earth-bound component. There is a chance that a glancing blow of the first CME might arrive at Earth, with an estimated arrival time of November 3 at 17:50 UT. Flaring activity at the C-level is expected to continue. The proton flux of the >10MeV protons increased on November 1 and values observed by ACE reached a maximum of 9 pfu at around 19:20 UT, which is near the event threshold. The proton flux will likely remain enhanced for the next day after which it returns to it's background level. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude maximum decreased from 10 to 3 nT, with a current value of 6 nT, as observed by ACE. The solar wind speed varied between 420 and 540 km/s. Quiet to active conditions are expected, with limited chances for minor storm conditions due to CH high speed stream influences within the next 24 hours and the possible arrival of a glancing blow of the November 1 CME.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 070, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	120
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	066 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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