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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Nov 16 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Nov 2014	166	022
17 Nov 2014	171	021
18 Nov 2014	175	010

Bulletin

Moderate solar activity was recorded with two M3 flares originating from NOAA AR 2209. The first one, an M3.2 flare peaked at 12:03 UT and the second, an M3.7 peaked at 20:46UT. The latter flare was associated with a CME which was first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 images at 21:24 UT. It is directed in southeastern direction and does not appear to be very wide nor fast. No impact on Earth is expected. While most regions on disc are fairly stable or decaying, a new region 2213 was numbered by NOAA. M flares remain likely in the next 48 hours with a chance for an X flare. AR 2209 is the most likely source. In the final hours of November 15, solar wind speed increased to speeds well over 600 km/s with peaks of around 700 km/s and currently values around 600 km/s. The total magnetic field first increased to values between 8 and 9 nT and then dipped to very low values coincident with variations in the phi angle (which was positive otherwise) between 23 UT and midnight. Total magnetic field was rather stable around the 7 nT level afterwards. These values indicate the anticipated corotating interaction and coronal high speed high speed stream influence. Bz was variable and reached peaks of close to -8nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 2-3) first and unsettled to active since the high speed stream influence (local K Dourbes remained 3 but NOAA Kp 4). Influence of the high speed stream is expected to persist in the next 24 hours and to decay afterwards. Corresponding active periods or even minor geomagnetic storm conditions could be recorded in the first 24 hours, later settling down to unsettled conditions with still isolated active periods possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 070, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	019
Estimated Ap	020
Estimated international sunspot number	076 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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