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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Dec 12 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Dec 2014	145	019
13 Dec 2014	150	017
14 Dec 2014	155	025

Bulletin

A large filament eruption occurring in the north/northeast (center near N20E10) part of the solar disk was the main event of the past period. It started at about 2:54 UT on December 12 and was followed by a slight increase in the GOES Xray flux and a narrow CME heading to the north/northeast. The CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 and C3 at 5:36 UT and 5:42 UT respectively. A data gap before the first measurement prevents the observation of earlier CME data. As the CME was rather narrow (estimated width of 90 degrees) and mostly northward oriented, no influence on Earth is expected. Some tiny C-class flares were detected, originating from NOAA 2230 (Catania number 30), 2234 and 2235. Flaring activity at the C-level is expected. A sector boundary crossing occurred from negative to positive phi around 22 UT on December 11, accompanied by an increase in interplanetary magnetic field magnitude (about 10 nT), solar wind speed (from 400 to maximally 600 km/s) and temperature. The Bz component is mainly negative. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed at Dourbes, but with a time slot of active conditions. Geomagnetic conditions at unsettled up to minor storm can be expected, especially at the arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream on December 14.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 081, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	078 - Based on 08 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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