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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Jan 04 1220 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Jan 2015	152	010
05 Jan 2015	155	018
06 Jan 2015	157	012

Bulletin

Only 6 low-level C-class flares were recorded, with the strongest event a C2.1 flare peaking at 04:52UT. All these flares had NOAA 2253 as their source, the only group that has been actively flaring during the last 24 hours. The negative polarity spot from yesterday's delta structure in NOAA 2253 has moved out of the region's positive polarity leading portion. No CME was associated to yesterday's isolated M-class flare. Some magnetic polarity mixing is present in the trailing portion of NOAA 2255. C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare from NOAA 2253. The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed decreased from about 500 km/s around 09:30UT (03 January) to its current values just below 400 km/s. Bz was mostly positive till 20:00UT with values up to +8 nT, and steadily becoming negative after 02:00UT with values near -8 nT at the end of the period. In between, Bz was stable near slightly positive values. The influence of the high speed stream from the extension of the southern polar coronal hole is still expected for later today or tomorrow (05 January). The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance on a minor geomagnetic storm episode.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 074, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Jan 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	078 - Based on 10 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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