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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Feb 21 1225 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Feb 2015	120	007
22 Feb 2015	125	017
23 Feb 2015	125	009

Bulletin

Solar activity was low with four C-class flares, mainly originating from NOAA active region (AR) 2286, which has currently rounded the west limb. The strongest flare was a C2.3 flare peaking at 15:22 UT on February 20. No associated solar event was observed. A filament eruption was observed starting on February 20 at 3:24 UT near S15E15, with a CME observed in LASCO/C2 (first clear measurement near 7:36 UT ) and in LASCO/C3 (first measurement near 12:06 UT). The very slow CME (nearly 200 km/s) was directed to the south with a less than 100 degrees angular width. No Earth-directed component is expected. Flaring at C-class flares is expected. Nominal solar wind conditions were observed, with the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field maximally at 7 nT. The solar wind speed is currently around 350 km/s. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (K=1 to 3) at the local level (Dourbes) and global level (estimated NOAA Kp), which is expected to continue for the next few hours. The arrival of the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream could result in active geomagnetic conditions on February 22 (K=4, with a small chance for K=5).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 043, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Feb 2015

Wolf number Catania	054
10cm solar flux	120
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	046 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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