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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Jul 19 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Jul 2015	101	009
20 Jul 2015	101	021
21 Jul 2015	099	007

Bulletin

The Sun produced two low C flares during the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 2388 released a C1.8 flare peaking around 14:42 UT on July 18, which was accompanied by a Type II radio burst and a CME first observed in LASCO C2 at 15:12 UT. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. A large filament eruption took place between about 10W 25N and 60W 10S, starting around 1h UT on July 19. This eruption seems to have triggered a smaller filament eruption between about 55W 30S and 85W 20S around 8h UT, as well as the C2.0 flare released by AR 2384, which peaked around 10:43 UT. Two faint CMEs detected in LASCO C2 images, starting at 3:48 UT and 5:24 UT respectively, may be related to the first filament eruption, but none of these CMEs is expected to be geoeffective. More C flaring is possible, with a slight chance for an M flare. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1). Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 3) are expected on July 19. Quiet to unsettled levels with active (K Dourbes = 4) excursions are possible on July 20 due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on July 21.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 044, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Jul 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	096
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	061 - Based on 32 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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