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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Oct 04 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Oct 2015	090	016
05 Oct 2015	080	017
06 Oct 2015	080	007

Bulletin

During the past period, there were only three active regions on the solar disk. Four lower C-class flares and one M1.0 (peaking at 2:41 UT on October 4) flare were observed. The M1 flare originated from NOAA 2422, though being almost completely behind the West limb. NOAA 2427 now is a beta-gamma region, though it did not produce any significant flares the past 24 hours. Flaring activity at the C-level is expected. An extended equatorial positive polarity coronal hole has reached the central meridian and will be geo-effective within about 3 days.

Solar wind observations show a slight increase in speed (up to 500 km/s) and temperature from 15 UT October 4 on. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was maximally around 10 nT, with a mainly negative Bz component. Solar wind is expected to remain slightly disturbed and possibly indicate the arrival of a glancing blow related to the September 30 CME later today. Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled at the local level (Dourbes K=3) and active (NOAA Kp=4 at 3-6 UT) to even minor storm (NOAA Kp=5 at 9 UT) levels at the planetary level. Geomagnetic activity could be at to active or minor storm conditions during the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 021, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Oct 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	097
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	046 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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