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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Dec 05 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Dec 2015	097	013
06 Dec 2015	097	018
07 Dec 2015	096	014

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low over the past 24 hours. The largest recorded flare was an estimated C4.5 class flare (Using PROBA2 LYRA observations due to a data gap in GOES X-ray flux observations). NOAA Active Regions (AR) 2462 (Hax Alpha) and 2463 (Dao Beta) produced most of the activity, with AR 2462 producing the C4.5 flare peaking at 17:10 UT. There was an eruption off of the East limb associated with the C4.5 flare, but this is not expected to interact with the Earth. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be low. ARs 2462 and 2463 have shown evidence of flux emergence and are expected to produce C-class flares and small eruptions, with a very small possibility of an M-class flare. The solar wind speed has been slowly increasing from around 370 km /s to 420 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has slowly increased from around 6 nT to 10 nT, and the Bz component has ranged from +10 to -10 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between quiet and active (NOAA Kp 0-4, local K Dourbes 1-3). Quiet conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the day, but a large positive polar coronal hole (CH), with a section extending to low latitudes, has moved into the eastern hemisphere and is expected to enhance solar wind conditions on 06-Dec-2015 as the leading Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR) interacts with the Earth system. The following High Speed Stream (HSS) will enhance conditions through 07-Dec-2015.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 043, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Dec 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	098
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	033 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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