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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 Jan 03 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Jan 2016	102	017
04 Jan 2016	102	016
05 Jan 2016	102	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been very low with the X-ray flux remaining below C level throughout the period. NOAA AR 2473 has departed over the Western limb. In addition to AR 2476 and 2477 a new region made its appearance on disk just southwest of AR 2477. These regions are fairly insignificant and only a limited chance for C flares is expected. The >10MeV proton flux values are further recovering from the proton event yesterday. With AR 2473 departing over the Western limb the warning condition for proton events is lifted. No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in coronagraph data. A positive polarity equatorial coronal hole is transiting the central meridian and expected to become geoeffective in 3 days from now. Solar wind speed has decreased over the period from around 490 km/s to around 450 km/s, with no sign of the anticipated high speed stream influence. Total magnetic field saw a peak of near 9.5 nT and is currently at 6-7nT. Bz was variable and mostly above -6nT. The magnetic field phi angle changed from the negative into the positive sector just before the start of the period. Solar wind conditions may see the arrival of a shock related to the January 1/2 CME this afternoon, afterwards recovering to nominal conditions. A positive polarity equatorial coronal hole is currently transiting the central meridian and expected to become geoeffective from January 6 onwards. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet (both local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions may see some enhancement to active conditions or even minor to moderate storm levels with the shock arrival expected this afternoon before recovering to quiet to unsettled conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 036, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Jan 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	100
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	037 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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