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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 Jan 20 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Jan 2016	099	011
21 Jan 2016	098	014
22 Jan 2016	097	015

Bulletin

NOAA 2484, which was spotless for most of its transit over the solar disk, developed over the last 24 hours and was the source of a C1 flare (07:34UT) and several B-class flares. It shows some magnetic mixing in its trailing section, and could produce another C-class flare before rounding the west limb. Some sunspot development was also observed in active regions NOAA 2488 and NOAA 2487, the latter bordering the top-end of a 20 degrees long north-south oriented filament. A coronal mass ejection (CME) first seen in LASCO/C2 on 19 January at 12:24UT was related to a backside event. No earth-directed CMEs were observed.

There's a chance on another C-class flare. . Solar wind speed undulated between 350 and 410 km/s. Bz was initially at a steady +10 nT until shortly after midnight, when it gradually turned negative with peak values near -14 nT around 08:30UT and at the end of the period. The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with active conditions observed on planetary (06-09UT and 09-12UT intervals) and local (Dourbes, at 10-11UT) levels. A southern polar coronal hole (CH) extension at -25 to -30 degrees latitude has nearly finished its transit over the Central Meridian (CM).

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next two days, with a small chance on a minor storming episode.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Jan 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	098
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	066 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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