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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 Mar 16 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Mar 2016	095	025
17 Mar 2016	095	011
18 Mar 2016	095	005

Bulletin

Two C-class flares were observed during the last 24 hours, with a C2.2 flare as the strongest one. The C2.2 flare peaked at 6:46 UT this morning and originated from NOAA active region 2522, which is located at the West limb. The flare was associated with a CME with first measurement at 7:00 UT in LASCO/C2. A first analysis indicates there is no Earth directed component, but further analysis will be needed to confirm this. There was also a radio type II burst observed (at Humain) and an enhancement in the proton flux at >10MeV was noted. The threshold for a proton event has not been exceeded at this moment, but further increases of the proton flux are possible. Flaring at the C-level is expected to continue.

The solar wind is still under influence of the coronal hole high speed stream, with solar wind speeds between 450 and 600 km/s. The magnetic field magnitude is nearly 10 nT with a fluctuating north-south component. Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (K=5) for several time slots before and after UT midnight, both at the local (Dourbes) and global (estimated NOAA Kp) level. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a few isolated slots of active levels are expected.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 063, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Mar 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	094
AK Chambon La Forêt	039
AK Wingst	029
Estimated Ap	028
Estimated international sunspot number	053 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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