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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 May 02 1242 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 May 2016	093	021
03 May 2016	094	007
04 May 2016	096	005

Bulletin

There are currently seven numbered sunspot groups visible on the solar disc, and all have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field. Two most complex groups are Catania sunspot group 64 and 67 (NOAA AR 2536 and 2539, respectively) with the beta configuration of their photospheric magnetic field. The strongest, out of two C-class flares reported during last 24 hours, was the impulsive C3.5 (peaking at 08:42 UT) on May 06. The flare originating from the newly emerged NOAA AR 2540, and was associated with the EIT wave, the type II radio burst (indicating the speed of the shock wave to be about 1800 km/s as reported by San Vito Observatory) and the CME. The angular width of the CME is at the moment not clearly visible (only few frames of coronagraph data are currently available). However, it seems that the CME is directed north-east from the Sun-Earth line. We expect C-class flares in the following 24 hours (probability is about 60 percent).

The Earth is presently inside the fast solar wind (the speed is about 500 km/s). The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude amounts about 7 nT. Early this morning, negative value of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (down to -10 nT) and the fast solar wind speed (about 500 km/s) induced geomagnetic storm conditions (NOAA reported planetary K index to be 6 and local station at Dourbes reported K=4). The arrival of the fast solar wind which induced the geomagnetic storm conditions could be associated with either of two coronal holes, the low latitude one on the northern hemisphere (between N10 and N30) or the narrow and elongated equatorial coronal hole, which both reached the central meridian in the late evening of April 26. Currently, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field amounts about -5 nT and the geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled. However, if the value of the Bz component decreases again, the intervals of the active and storm conditions are possible in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 087, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 01 May 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	092
AK Chambon La Forêt	044
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	084 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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