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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 May 17 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 May 2016	102	011
18 May 2016	100	012
19 May 2016	096	013

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. The largest flare was a C1.8 class flare. Active Region (AR) 2544 (Macintosh class:Dai; Mag. type:Beta-gamma) produced the largest flare, the C1.8 class flare, peaking at 15:25 UT yesterday. ARs 2544 and 2545 (Cro; Beta) have been the most active regions, producing flares at the B and C class levels. ARs 2542, 2543 and 2545 have all rotated onto the West limb. AR 2544 has exhibited significant flux emergence and cancellation in HMI observations, which may lead to further flares. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a medium probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed has remained around 550 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated around 7 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -7 and +7 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 2-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A positive polar coronal hole is currently positioned in the Western hemisphere of the Sun and the resulting high-speed stream (HSS) may enhance solar wind speeds. The CME produced at 15:24 UT on 15-May-2016 may also increase geo-activity at the Earth around 16:30 UT on 18-May-2016.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 037, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 16 May 2016

Wolf number Catania	106
10cm solar flux	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	061 - Based on 31 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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