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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 Jul 17 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Jul 2016	106	012
18 Jul 2016	106	014
19 Jul 2016	105	011

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. The largest flare was a C1.4 class flare. Active Region (AR) 2567 (Macintosh class:Dsc; Mag. type:Beta-Gamma) has been the most active producing the C1.4 class flare, peaking at 08:03 UT this morning. The region shows evidence of flux emergence and cancellation in HMI magnetogram observations, this region is likely to produce further flaring activity. All other regions appear stable. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed has been slowly decreasing from around around 550 km/s to 450 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated around 4 nT. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -4 and +2 nT, but has been mainly negative this morning. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-4 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The declining solar wind speeds and low magnetic field strength has reduced the chance of geomagnetic activity. However, a new High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected in a couple of days time, which may enhance geomagnetic activity again.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 039, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Jul 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	065 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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