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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 Oct 29 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Oct 2016	079	029
30 Oct 2016	081	018
31 Oct 2016	083	008

Bulletin

Two small B2 flares were observed from an unnumbered sunspot region near N10W70 between 21 and 24UT. This region is currently decaying. NOAA 2603 was quiet and rotated over the west limb, while NOAA 2604 (Catania 50) showed some activity around 01:45UT. Old active region NOAA 2599, source of the 25 October CME on the Sun's farside, is expected to rotate over the southeast limb during the next 24 hours. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.

Quiet flaring conditions are expected to continue, with a chance on an isolated C-class flare.

Earth remained under the influence of the high speed stream (HSS) from the huge coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed started the period near 670 km/s, reached a minimum around 23UT near 550 km/s, before intensifying again to near 700 km/s around 08:30UT. The current solar wind speed is near 600 km/s (DSCOVR). Bz ranged mostly between -4 and +5 nT, except for a sustained negative period between midnight and 06UT with dips to -9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was directed away from the Sun (positive). Kp ranged from unsettled conditions to minor geomagnetic storming, while the hourly K Dourbes ranged from quiet conditions to minor storming.

The geo-environment is expected to remain under the influence of the CH HSS for most of the period. Quiet to active conditions are expected, with still a good but waning chance on an isolated minor storming episode.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 027, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Oct 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	079
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	019
Estimated Ap	019
Estimated international sunspot number	036 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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