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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 Dec 04 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Dec 2016	085	002
05 Dec 2016	085	005
06 Dec 2016	084	003

Bulletin

NOAA 2615 gained some sunspot area and developed magnetic mixing in its trailing and northern portion. It was the source of the strongest flares of the period, two C1 flares peaking resp. at 02:51UT and 07:21UT. NOAA 2612 was quiet and is currently the only other sunspot region visible on disk. Some coronal dimming was observed south of spotless NOAA 2614 (01:25UT). No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10MeV proton flux was at nominal levels.

C-class flares are expected, with a small chance on an isolated M-class event.

Solar wind speed declined from about 310 to 270 km/s, with Bz fluctuating between -2 nT and +1 nT. What seems to be a sector boundary crossing was observed around 23:00UT, with the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field changing from away to towards the Sun. Solar wind parameters may become enhanced in response to the particle stream from a small positive coronal hole (CH). An extension of the negative southern polar coronal hole is approaching the central meridian.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels and is expected to remain so. There's a chance on unsettled episodes on 4 or 5 December in response to the arrival of the CH's particle stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 040, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Dec 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	085
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	058 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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