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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2017 Mar 01 1244 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Mar 2017	082	030
02 Mar 2017	080	024
03 Mar 2017	079	016

Bulletin

Solar activity is low with only several B-class flares reported during last 24 hours. Majority of the flaring activity originated from the NOAA AR 2641 which presently has beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, and might be the source of B-class and isolated C-class flares in the coming hours. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections have been detected, and the solar protons have remained at background level in the past 24 hours.

Since this morning Earth is inside the fast solar wind associated with the large and elongated extension of the southern polar coronal hole (across the solar equator and up to 20 degrees on the northern hemisphere), which reached the central meridian on February 25. The solar wind speed is presently about 550 km/s and still increasing. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is around 20 nt. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic filed is fluctuating, and it had its lowest value of -17 nT at about 11 UT today. As response to this low value of the Bz component and the fast solar wind, disturbed geomagnetic conditions were reported (NOAA reported Kp index Kp=5 and local station at Dourbes reported K=4). We expect disturbed geomagnetic conditions to continue in the coming hours, K=5 is very probable, but intervals of up to K=6 might be possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 057, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Feb 2017

Wolf number Catania	058
10cm solar flux	082
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	/// - Based on /// stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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