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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2019 May 17 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 May 2019	073	021
18 May 2019	072	019
19 May 2019	072	007

Bulletin

The Sun produced no flares above B2 level in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours, especially from region 2741, is estimated at 25%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 410 and 475 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 440 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field varied between about 4 and 9 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT for extended periods. Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible in the next days, with the expected arrival of the May 13 CME.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible on May 17 and 18, due to the expected arrival of the May 13 CME. A return to quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels is expected on May 19.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 011, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 16 May 2019

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	014 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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