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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2019 Oct 20 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Oct 2019	066	020
21 Oct 2019	066	021
22 Oct 2019	066	007

Bulletin

The Sun is spotless and did not produce any flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at only 1%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by ACE varied between about 315 and 385 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly oriented away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible on October 20 and 21, with the expected arrival of a high speed stream associated with a recurrent, negative polarity, narrow coronal hole that spans from the South pole to the equator.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible on October 20 and 21, due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream associated with a recurrent, negative polarity, narrow coronal hole that spans from the South pole to the equator. A return to quiet to unsettled levels (K Dourbes < 4) is expected on October 22.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Oct 2019

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	066
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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