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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2020 Oct 20 1249 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Oct 2020	075	005
21 Oct 2020	075	009
22 Oct 2020	074	010

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity is low. Catania group 45 (NOAA AR 2776 - beta classification – disk centre) was the source of A-class flares in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 2777 was the source of one A-class flares in the last 24 hours before it rotated off the visble disk. NOAA AR 2776 could be the source more low A and possibly B-class flares in the coming hours.

On Oct 19th an A8.3-class flare on NOAA AR 2776 was followed by a dimming visible in AIA 193 about 12:00UT. Due to its location any possible eruptions were hard to identify.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to stay at background levels for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal to moderate levels over the past 24 hours, reaching a peak of 772 pfu at Oct 19th 18:45UT. It is expected to remain at those levels over the next 24 hours.

The speed of the solar wind varied between 345 and 450 km/s (DSCOVR). The polarity of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly away from the Sun (phi angle in the postive sector). Bz fluctuated between -5 and +9 nT. The magnitude of the magnetic field varied between 1 and 10 nT. The in situ observations showed the arrival of the shock wave on Oct 19th at 13:45UT. The magnetic field magnitude, increased from 5 to 10 nT, with a simultaneous increase at the solar wind speed, density and the temperature. The solar origin of the observed shock is unclear. It could be associated with a narrow Coronal Mass Ejection seen in STEREO A COR2 RD on Oct 14th 01:39UT on the Western limb, which was a narrow event but the confidence level is not high. A not prominent extension of the Northern Coronal Hole (CH) is about to cross Central Meridian (CM).

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled due to the aforementioned shock. The values registered for the past 24 hours were 0-3 for K Dourbes and 1-3 for NOAA Kp. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as we await the HSS from the negative southern CH that crossed CM on Oct 17th.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 012, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Oct 2020

Wolf number Catania	018
10cm solar flux	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	015 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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