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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2020 Oct 26 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Oct 2020	074	028
27 Oct 2020	076	038
28 Oct 2020	078	017

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at very low levels. There is only one numbered active region (AR) visible on the Sun, NOAA 2776. Only minor B-class flares have been recorded, mostly produced by a new region that emerged south of disk center. This new AR is developing quickly and may increase the flaring activity.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to stay at background levels for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron passed the 10^3 pfu threshold at 13:10 UT on 25 October. As we are still under the influence of a High Speed Stream (HSS) from a coronal hole (CH), the electrons are expected to stay at elevated levels in the next 48 h.

The speed of the solar wind varied between 520 and 630 km/s. The Earth is still inside the HSS from a positive polarity coronal hole. Bz fluctuated between -7 and +8 nT. The magnitude of the magnetic field varied between 4 and 9 nT. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected for the next 48 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions were active both locally and at planetary levels (K Dourbes = 4, Kp = 4). Over the next 48 hours, we expect to see the influence of the current CH-related solar wind plus the one coming from the low latitudinal extension of the northern polar coronal hole (positive polarity also), which could create up to major storm conditions (in the previous rotation Kp went up to 6).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 019, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Oct 2020

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	020
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	017 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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