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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2020 Nov 23 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Nov 2020	090	013
24 Nov 2020	092	010
25 Nov 2020	093	019

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours. Two C-class flares (C3.3 and C1.2) were observed from the active region rotating onto the solar disk, now classified as NOAA Active Region (AR) 2785 (alpha). NOAA AR2783 (alpha) remained quiet producing only B-class flares. NOAA AR2784 (beta) in the northern hemisphere did not produce any significant flares. NOAA AR2782 has now rotated over the west solar limb. Further sunspots are also expected to rotate onto the disk in the coming days. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a high chance for C-class flares, particularly from NOAA 2785. An isolated M-class flare also remains possible.

A dimming observed near AR2783 at 17 UT Nov 21 may be associated with a slow coronal mass ejection (CME) signature seen in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery after 23 UT Nov 21. Due to the location of the AR, this CME could have an Earth directed component. Further analysis of this event is ongoing.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased but remained just below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to exceed this level in the next 24 hours in response to the high-speed stream currently influencing Earth. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to rise to moderate levels in the next 24 hours and is likely to persist at moderate levels for some time.

Over the past 24 hours the Earth continued to be under the influence of the high-speed stream associated with the positive polarity coronal hole, which traversed the central meridian on Nov 19. The solar wind speed showed a declining trend, decreasing from around 650 to 550 km/s (DSCOVR). The total magnetic field had a maximal strength of 7 nT at 12 UT Nov 22 and then reduced to below 5 nT for much of the period. Bz had a minimum value of -5 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector.

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (Kp=5) at 12 UT on Nov 22 and then continued at active levels until Nov 23 when quiet to unsettled conditions returned (Kp 2-3, K Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue at quiet to active levels for the next 24 hours with a continued possibility of another interval of minor storm conditions in response to extended periods of large negative Bz.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 041, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Nov 2020

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	088
AK Chambon La Forêt	035
AK Wingst	032
Estimated Ap	031
Estimated international sunspot number	028 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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