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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Jan 17 1458 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Jan 2021	073	005
18 Jan 2021	073	020
19 Jan 2021	073	027

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels. The only visible active regions on the solar disk (NOAA 2796 beta) showed very low activity. No significant flares were detected in the last 24 hours and none are expected in the next 24 hours. A minor possibility for a C-class flare remains. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to increase up to moderate levels with the arrival of the HSS originating from the extension of the southern polar coronal hole.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained at low levels reflecting background slow solar wind conditions. The total magnetic field and its Bz component remained very weak, varying in the range of 1 nT to 5 nT and -4 nT to 3.6 nT, respectively. The phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector. The solar wind speed weakly varied in the range of 274 km/s to 347 km/s.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the past 24 hours and quiet to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours with the arrival of the HSS originating from the high latitude extension of the southern polar coronal hole. A slight chance for a minor geomagnetic storm on Jan 18th remains possible. A low-latitude extension of the northern polar coronal hole crossed the central meridian early on Jan 16th and the fast stream coming from it is expected to affect the Earth from Jan 19th on causing more periods of unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 014, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Jan 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	078
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	013 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Jan 17 1951 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Jan 2021	075	003
17 Jan 2021	075	010
18 Jan 2021	075	021

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels. The newly emerged sunspot group from Jan 15th is now classified as beta and numbered as NOAA 2796. No significant flares were detected in the last 24 hours and none are expected in the next 24 hours with a minor change for C -class flares from the newly emerged active region and NOAA AR 2795, which is expected to rotate onto the solar disc from the easter limb on Jan 17th. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 48 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained at low levels reflecting background slow solar wind conditions. The total magnetic field and its Bz component remained very weak, varying in the range of 1 nT to 6 nT and -4 nT to 4 nT, respectively. The phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector. The solar wind speed weakly increased from 290 km/s to 350 km/s.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the past 24 hours and quiet conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Quiet to active conditions are expected for the evening of Jan 17th and throughout Jan 18th as a high speed stream originating from the high latitude extension of the southern polar coronal hole reaches Earth. A slight chance for a minor geomagnetic storm on Jan 18th remains possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 013, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Jan 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	073
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	016 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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