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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Feb 22 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Feb 2021	075	018
23 Feb 2021	075	031
24 Feb 2021	075	008

Bulletin

The solar activity has been mostly quiet over the past 24 hours. The sunspot (Catania 73, NOAA-AR 2803) remained quiet on the visible solar disc without any significant flaring activity. A new northern central small region, of beta-gamma configuration, appeared. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained mainly over the 1000 pfu threshold. The electron flux is expected to remain on this level from the combined effects of the negative polarity Coronal Holes (CH) due to the enhancement of the solar wind conditions and the arrival of the expected CME from Feb 20. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence remained on moderate levels in the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the Earth has remained under the influence of the fast solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 540 km/s and 625 km/s. The total magnetic field ranged between 3 nT and 6 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -6 nT and 5 nT. The fast solar wind streams associated with southern coronal holes (negative magnetic polarity) are expected to have a decreasing influence on the solar wind environment near Earth for the 24 hours, possibly followed by a solar wind shock due to the arrival of the CME on Feb 20.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were unsettled, to active. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain in the same levels with a slight chance of minor storm conditions (Kp and K-Dourbes equal to 5) in response to the enhancement of the solar wind parameters and possible prolonged periods of southward directed Bz component and the CME on Feb 20.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 017, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Feb 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	026
Estimated international sunspot number	011 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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