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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Mar 05 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Mar 2021	074	010
06 Mar 2021	074	021
07 Mar 2021	074	017

Bulletin

NOAA region 2806 has decayed to a plage while Beta region 2807 has also decayed a lot. The Sun did not produce any C flares during the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours. Moderate values are possible in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours. Moderate levels are possible in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR further decreased from about 490 km/s to about 380 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly oriented towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected upon the expected arrival on March 5 of a high speed stream associated with a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole that crossed the Central Meridian on March 1.

Quiet conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 2 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on March 5, 6 and 7 after the expected arrival of the high speed stream associated with the coronal hole that crossed the Central Meridian on March 1, with a chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 011, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Mar 2021

Wolf number Catania	035
10cm solar flux	081
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	025 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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