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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Mar 13 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Mar 2021	076	026
14 Mar 2021	075	031
15 Mar 2021	075	019

Bulletin

NOAA active region 2808 (Catania groups 78 and 90) produced just a single B2.5 flare peaking at 19:04UT. Otherwise X-ray flux remained below B level. Active region NOAA 2809 decayed into plage, while region 2808 maintained its trailing spots but did not show any further significant growth. X-ray flux is expected to remain below C level.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux peaked briefly over the 1000 pfu event threshold before dipping to low values. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at low to normal levels today, before being expected to start a gradual increase due to the enhanced solar wind conditions.

The expected increase in Solar wind conditions (associated to the negative polarity coronal hole on the Southern hemisphere) is observed to be setting in. After reaching a minimum of 320 km/s early in the period Solar wind speed started to increase, now reaching just over 400 km/s. Total magnetic field reached up to 15nT and the Bz component reached Southward deviations up to -11nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was directed towards the Sun (as indicated by the phi angle). A further increase in Solar wind speed is expected over the next 24 hours up to possibly over 500 km/s. Magnetic field magnitude may remain enhanced initially but should start to decrease gradually as the Solar wind speed reaches its maximum.

Geomagnetic conditions have reached active levels (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to see active periods in the next 24-48 hours before returning to quiet to unsettled conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 011, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Mar 2021

Wolf number Catania	023
10cm solar flux	077
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	012 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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