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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Mar 22 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Mar 2021	077	012
23 Mar 2021	079	031
24 Mar 2021	080	031

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels in the past 24 hours. Catania group 81 (previously numbered by NOAA as AR 2810) has remained a plage region and produced B-class flares. NOAA AR 2811 remains magnetically simple and has produced some low-B class flares. A new active region is expected to rotate unto the solar the disk in the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a small chance of a C-class flare.

A Corona Mass Ejection (CME) was observed by COR2/STEREO at 22th March, 01:10 UT. It has an Earth-directed component and its speed is estimated to 250-300 km/s. It is expected to reach Earth around the 26th March. A more accurate estimation will be possible when LASCO/C2 data become available.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold several times in the past 24 hours and is expected to exceed the 1000 pfu threshold again in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind conditions reflected a fast solar wind regime over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed increased further and ranged between 470 km/s the 680 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field varied between -7.5 nT and 5.8 nT. The magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain typical of the fast solar wind regime over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions varied a lot from quiet to minor storm levels (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes: 1-5) over the past 24 hours. For the next 24 hours active conditions are expected. The CME first observed on the 20th March is expected to arrive at 23rd March or 24th March.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 022, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Mar 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	077
AK Chambon La Forêt	035
AK Wingst	024
Estimated Ap	026
Estimated international sunspot number	011 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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