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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 May 15 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 May 2021	076	009
16 May 2021	075	007
17 May 2021	076	017

Bulletin

Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2822 (Catania sunspot group 93, mag. configuration Beta) has decayed during the past 24 hours and produced only B-class flares. NOAA AR 2823 (Catania sunspot group 94, mag. configuration Alpha) did not produce significant flare activity and continued to decay in the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expect to remain very low over the next 24 hours with a small chance of C-class events.

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was detected in SoHO/LASCO C2 and STEREO-A/COR2 coronagraph images at around 12:00 UT March 13. The projected speed is 190 km/s and it is expected to arrive around the 18 May.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

A negative polarity Coronal Hole (CH) with a latitudinal extension form -30 degrees to +30 degrees has reached the central meridian.

The Earth is under the influence of the slow solar wind. The solar wind speed ranged between 380 and 490 km/s over the past 24 hours. The Bz component of the magnetic field fluctuated between -7 and +9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly negative (towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to reflect the slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes: 1-3). They are expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 028, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 14 May 2021

Wolf number Catania	026
10cm solar flux	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	025 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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