Prohlížíte si archiv pondělí 14. června 2021

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Jun 14 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Jun 2021	073	006
15 Jun 2021	074	022
16 Jun 2021	074	017

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels with no significant flares detected in the last 24 hours. Active region NOAA AR2829 (Catania sunspot group 2) has rotated behind the west limb, while active region NOAA AR2832 (Catania sunspot group 6) has decayed into plage and is currently approaching the west limb. The only active region on the visible solar disc at the moment is NOAA AR2833 (Catania sunspot group 7), which first rotated onto the visible disk from the east limb on June 12th. This region has unipolar underlying magnetic field configuration and has shown very low levels of activity. The X-ray flare activity is expected to remain low for the next 24 hours with a slight chance for a C-class flare mainly due to an unnumbered active region approaching the east solar limb.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the limited available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours all solar wind speed (ACE and DSCOVR) showed a gradual decline from 470 km/s to 350 km/s with the decreasing intensity of the high speed stream related to a positive polarity coronal hole. The total magnetic field was weak, varying between 2.5 and 5 nT with a minimum Bz value of -3 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field (as measured by the phi angle) was predominantly in the positive sector, reflecting the polarity of the geo-effective coronal hole.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and mostly quiet locally with an isolated period of unsettled geomagnetic conditions as registered in Dourbes. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with the expected arrival of a CIR and HSS from the high-latitude extension of the negative polarity southern polar coronal whole, which first crossed the central meridian on June 12th. Minor geomagnetic storms are possible in the evening of June 15th and thought the night.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 010, based on 25 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Jun 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	069
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	016 - Based on 31 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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