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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Oct 01 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Oct 2021	095	007
02 Oct 2021	095	007
03 Oct 2021	095	007

Bulletin

Two active regions (ARs) present on the visible solar disk. NOAA AR 2877 (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration) and 2880 (beta). The former produced a C1.2 flare peaking at 12:49 UT on 30 September. Over the next 24 hours, more C-class flares can be expected.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay there in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, it may increase over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours, it may increase over the next 24 hours.

The CME from 28 September arrived to the Earth at 18:00 UT. It was a glancing blow with the bulk of the CME material passing to the south-west of the Earth. Magnetic field intensity increased to 14 nt (with Bz up to -6 nT) and solar wind speed reached 550 km/s. Over the next 24 hours we expect a return to slow solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes 1-4) over the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 034, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Sep 2021

Wolf number Catania	057
10cm solar flux	095
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	045 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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